Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 9.335352e-05 0.000113 0.000133 0.000157 0.000183 0.000210 0.000242
2024-10-13 7.027953e-05 0.000095 0.000123 0.000157 0.000196 0.000239 0.000290
2024-10-20 5.511946e-05 0.000081 0.000113 0.000153 0.000200 0.000254 0.000320
2024-10-27 4.498909e-05 0.000073 0.000108 0.000154 0.000210 0.000276 0.000357
2024-11-03 3.336026e-05 0.000060 0.000095 0.000143 0.000204 0.000277 0.000368
2024-11-10 3.017141e-05 0.000058 0.000097 0.000151 0.000221 0.000306 0.000414
2024-11-17 2.389752e-05 0.000051 0.000091 0.000147 0.000222 0.000314 0.000433
2024-11-24 1.805588e-05 0.000044 0.000083 0.000141 0.000220 0.000319 0.000449
2024-12-01 1.397666e-05 0.000038 0.000077 0.000137 0.000220 0.000326 0.000466
2024-12-08 1.073644e-05 0.000033 0.000072 0.000134 0.000221 0.000334 0.000484
2024-12-15 7.841424e-06 0.000029 0.000067 0.000129 0.000219 0.000337 0.000497
2024-12-22 5.923177e-06 0.000025 0.000063 0.000127 0.000221 0.000346 0.000516
2024-12-29 3.679619e-06 0.000021 0.000059 0.000127 0.000230 0.000369 0.000562
2025-01-05 2.080790e-06 0.000018 0.000056 0.000127 0.000239 0.000394 0.000610
2025-01-12 9.199016e-07 0.000014 0.000051 0.000124 0.000242 0.000408 0.000644
2025-01-19 4.018964e-07 0.000012 0.000048 0.000125 0.000251 0.000432 0.000692
2025-01-26 3.877840e-08 0.000008 0.000041 0.000116 0.000245 0.000433 0.000707
2025-02-02 1.013724e-08 0.000008 0.000042 0.000123 0.000264 0.000471 0.000773
2025-02-09 NaN 0.000006 0.000038 0.000119 0.000264 0.000482 0.000803
2025-02-16 NaN 0.000004 0.000034 0.000114 0.000263 0.000489 0.000828
2025-02-23 NaN 0.000003 0.000030 0.000110 0.000263 0.000499 0.000856
2025-03-02 NaN 0.000002 0.000028 0.000107 0.000265 0.000512 0.000887
2025-03-09 NaN 0.000001 0.000024 0.000103 0.000263 0.000518 0.000911